@MastersThesis{Santos:2016:AvDeMo,
author = "Santos, Luiz Fernando dos",
title = "Avalia{\c{c}}{\~a}o da destreza do modelo de
circula{\c{c}}{\~a}o geral do CPTEC em prever o in{\'{\i}}cio
e o fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na regi{\~a}o Centro-Oeste
do Brasil",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
year = "2016",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2016-02-25",
keywords = "mon{\c{c}}{\~a}o, esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa, modelo,
previs{\~a}o sazonal, monsoon, rainy season, model, seasonal
forecast.",
abstract = "O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a destreza do Modelo
Global do Centro de Previs{\~a}o de Tempo e Estudos
Clim{\'a}ticos em identificar as datas de in{\'{\i}}cio e fim
da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa sobre a regi{\~a}o Centro-Oeste do
Brasil. Foi gerado um conjunto de 15 membros de previs{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas sazonais retrospectivas da vers{\~a}o 3.0 do
modelo para 15 esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas (2000/2001 a
2014/2015). As previs{\~o}es foram rodadas com as
condi{\c{c}}{\~o}es iniciais dos meses de abril a julho,
temperatura da superf{\'{\i}}cie do mar (TSM) persistidas dos
meses de junho a agosto, para os trimestres de
agosto/setembro/outubro, setembro/outubro/novembro e
outubro/novembro/dezembro, respectivamente, para prever o
in{\'{\i}}cio da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa. E as rodadas de
setembro a novembro, com TSM persistida de novembro a janeiro,
referentes ao trimestre de janeiro/fevereiro/mar{\c{c}}o,
fevereiro/mar{\c{c}}o/abril e mar{\c{c}}o/abril/maio,
respectivamente, para prever o fim. Esse conjunto de dados foi
analisado e comparado com os dados do \emph{Climate Data Record e
do Climate Prediction Center, ambos do National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration}, e do Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis do \emph{National Centers for Environmental
Prediction}. O primeiro possui uma resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial
de 1\$^{°}\$ de latitude e longitude, enquanto que os dois
{\'u}ltimos apresentam resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o de 0,5\$^{°}\$ de
latitude e de longitude. A identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o das datas de
in{\'{\i}}cio e fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa sobre a
regi{\~a}o foi baseada em sete {\'{\i}}ndices que representam o
comportamento atmosf{\'e}rico da regi{\~a}o
caracter{\'{\i}}stico de um regime de mon{\c{c}}{\~a}o. As
vari{\'a}veis-base desses {\'{\i}}ndices foram: vento e
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o (GAN et al., 2004, 2006); transporte de
umidade (RAIA; CAVALCANTI, 2008); radia{\c{c}}{\~a}o de onda
longa (GARCIA; KAYANO, 2009, 2013); e {\'a}gua precipit{\'a}vel
(NEVES et al., 2013). Ap{\'o}s a identifica{\c{c}}{\~a}o das
datas para cada membro foram calculadas as datas m{\'e}dias e os
desvios-padr{\~a}o de cada {\'{\i}}ndice. Al{\'e}m disso, as
previs{\~o}es sazonais das esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es de 2011/2012 a
2014/2015 foram comparadas com as previs{\~o}es da vers{\~a}o
operacional do modelo. O modelo representou relativamente bem o
in{\'{\i}}cio e fim da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa no
Centro-Oeste do Brasil. Os {\'{\i}}ndices que melhor
representaram a esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa foram o ICVZ, INAP e
ROLANT. A previs{\~a}o clim{\'a}tica sazonal de agosto
(fevereiro) mostrou maior destreza em identificar o
in{\'{\i}}cio (fim) da esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o chuvosa na
regi{\~a}o de estudo. Nas compara{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre as datas
entre os dados da vers{\~a}o 3.0 e operacional do modelo, a
vers{\~a}o 3.0 apresentou datas mais pr{\'o}ximas ao encontrado
pelo {\'{\i}}ndice de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o para a maioria
dos {\'{\i}}ndices, por{\'e}m uma s{\'e}rie maior de
esta{\c{c}}{\~o}es chuvosas e outros par{\^a}metros devem ser
analisados. ABSTRACT: This study aims to evaluate the skill of the
Global Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Center Model to
identify the onset and the demise of the rainy season on the
Western-Central Brazil. It had generated a ensemble of 15 members
of retrospective seasonal climate forecasts version 3.0 model for
15 rainy seasons (2000/2001 to 2014/2015), The forecasts were
integrated with the initial conditions from April to July, the
persisted sea surface temperature (SST) from June to August, for
the quarter August/September/October, September/October/November
and October/November/December, respectively, to predict the onset
of the rainy season; and the initial conditions from September to
November, with SST persisted from November to January for the
quarter January/February/March, February/March/April and
March/April/May, respectively, to predict the demise. This data
set was analyzed and compared with data from the Climate Data
Record and the Climate Prediction Center, both from the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the Climate Forecast
System Reanalysis of the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction. The first has a spatial resolution of 1\$^{°}\$ of
latitude and longitude, and the last two have resolution of
0.5\$^{°}\$ of latitude and longitude. The onset and the demise
of the rainy season over the region were based on seven indices
and they represent the atmospheric behavior of the characteristic
region of a monsoon regime. The base variables of the indices:
wind and precipitation (GAN et al, 2004, 2006.); moisture
transport (RAIA; CAVALCANTI, 2008); outgoing longwave radiation
(GARCIA; KAYANO, 2009, 2013); and precipitable water (NEVES et
al., 2013). Also were calculated the mean dates and standard
deviation of the dates found from each index. In addition, the
seasonal forecasts of the 2011/2012 to 2014/2015 were compared
with the forecast of the operational version model. The model
represented fairly well the onset and demise of the rainy season
in the Western-Central Brazil. The indices that best represented
the rainy season were the ICVZ, INAP and ROLANT. The seasonal
climate prediction of August (February) showed greater skill in
identifying the onset (demise) of the rainy season in the study
area. In the comparisons between the dates between version 3.0 and
operational version model, version 3.0 presented earlier dates
found by the rainfall index for most indices, but a larger number
of rainy seasons and other parameters should be analyzed.",
committee = "Fernandez, Julio Pablo Reyes (presidente) and Gan, Manoel Alonso
(orientador) and Silva, Adma Raia",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Evaluation of CPTEC general circulation model’s skill in
predicting the onset and the demise of the rainy season in the
Western-Central Brazil",
language = "pt",
pages = "155",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L4KE9H",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3L4KE9H",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}